Over the last 8 years, the U.S. has enjoyed the weakest economic recovery in it’s history in part because the economy has failed to recover at all. However thanks to the Federal Reserve, the historically low interest rates on government, corporate, and private debt has blown up a bond bubble that is even bigger than the preceding housing bubble. But rising interest rates will soon remove the facade of economic growth and expose the massive accumulation of debt that cannot mathematically be repaid or sustained under “normal” interest rates. The interest rate on the 10-year Treasury bond surpassed 3% today bringing it to it’s highest level since 2014. Yet more importantly, the the interest rates on 2 and 5-year bonds are already at 2008 highs and climbing. Much of the $13 trillion in federal government debt that has been racked up since 2008 has gone into bonds of 5 years and less.
In other words, the Great Recession that most people thought was in the rear view mirror will make a comeback as rates rise. American manufacturers who rehired workers after the Great Recession will be forced to lay off even more workers this time around. Eventually the Federal Reserve will be compelled to cut interest rates and probably pull out more rounds of quantitative easing (i.e. print money and buy worthless bonds). Yet unlike in the Great Recession, the world is not going to buy up a new flood of U.S. Dollars that will hit the international markets. Our long awaited currency crisis is finally here and Trump’s budget deficits will kick it off. Manufacturers who heavily depend upon foreign supplies will suffer greatly as the Dollar collapses.
For further explanation, please check out the Abstract & Full Report.